Boris Johnson is on course for an emphatic victory in the U.K. election held Thursday, after the BBC’s exit poll showed the Prime Minister’s Conservative Party would win 368 seats in Parliament, with a large majority of approximately 86, and a mandate to fulfil its campaign pledge of “Getting Brexit Done.”
The result predicts a dismal result for the Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn, giving them just 191 seats compared to 262 in 2017, the opposition party’s worst result since 1935.
The result, however, could change as votes are counted in 650 seats around the country as the night goes on. Most seats are expected to be confirmed by around 6 a.m. local time, or 1 a.m. eastern.
The exit poll, commissioned this year by the BBC, ITV and Sky News, was released as the clock struck 10 p.m. local time, when polling stations close. It tends to give an accurate picture of the election result because it asks people how they actually voted after they have done so. The exit poll has predicted the correct result (though not always the correct exact seat count) in every U.K. election since 1992.
The result of Thursday’s exit poll suggests the paralysis in British politics over Brexit is set to come to an end.
It means Johnson is almost certainly going to be able to deliver on his pledge to take Britain out of the European Union by January 31 or sooner, and enter the next stage of Brexit negotiations, on trade, which would formalize the divorce.
What are the results of the exit poll?
The BBC exit poll shows:
The Conservatives winning 368 seats
The Labour Party winning 191 seats
The Scottish National Party winning 55 seats
The Liberal Democrats winning 13 seats
The Brexit Party winning zero seats
How many seats are needed for a majority?
The number of seats needed to form a majority government is 320, according to the Institute for Government. (This is slightly less than half of the seats in Parliament, because some lawmakers never vote.)
How are the results different from the last election?
At the last election, in 2017, the Conservatives lost their majority but remained the largest party, with 318 seats. Labour came second with 262, having increased their seats by 30.
If the 2019 exit poll is accurate, it would mean that the Conservatives have increased their seats by 50 to 368, winning them a long-coveted outright majority.
And it would mean that Labour has decreased their tally by 71 seats, to 191, a historic defeat, lower than even the “wilderness years” for the party in the early 1980s. The result, if borne out by the actual vote count, means Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will likely come under huge pressure to step down very shortly.
“If it is anywhere near this,” Labour’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell told the BBC after the exit poll was released, “this will be extremely disappointing for the party … I thought it would be closer.”
“I think Brexit has dominated,” he said. “We thought other issues would cut through. But the evidence is, it clearly hasn’t.”
The so-called “red wall,” a swath of ex-industrial, historically pro-Labour seats across the north of England and Wales that largely voted to leave the E.U. in 2016, appeared to have been punctured by the Conservatives, according to the exit poll.
What do the results mean for Brexit?
If the exit poll is correct and the Conservatives have a majority, it means that Johnson will find it much easier to get his Brexit deal ratified. (The deal was rejected four times by lawmakers in the 2017-2019 parliament, largely because the Conservatives lacked a majority.)
The ratification will likely happen in January, clearing the way for the U.K. to leave the E.U. before Jan. 31, as promised by Johnson on the campaign trail.
But Brexit won’t be over and done with. The U.K. and E.U. will then enter a “transition period” during which Britain will continue to abide by some E.U. rules until December 2020. In the meantime, representatives of each will enter another, more complex phase of negotiations over a future trade deal.
It will perhaps also give Johnson some space to enact a policy
No comments:
Post a Comment